PAF Analysis

Setting up

Set seed

Packages

Warning: package 'ggplot2' was built under R version 4.4.3
Loading required package: grid
Loading required package: checkmate
Loading required package: abind
Warning: package 'dplyr' was built under R version 4.4.3

Attaching package: 'dplyr'
The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':

    filter, lag
The following objects are masked from 'package:base':

    intersect, setdiff, setequal, union
Warning: package 'patchwork' was built under R version 4.4.3
Warning: package 'scales' was built under R version 4.4.3

Attaching package: 'scales'
The following object is masked from 'package:purrr':

    discard

Attaching package: 'cowplot'
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    align_plots
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    as_gtable

Attaching package: 'gridExtra'
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    combine
Warning: package 'ggh4x' was built under R version 4.4.2
Registering fonts with R

Setting working directory

Read in Functions

Read in Data

Warning: package 'slider' was built under R version 4.4.2
Warning: There was 1 warning in `mutate()`.
ℹ In argument: `value = case_when(...)`.
ℹ In group 1: `age_group = "20-49"`, `sex = "Men"`, `level = "(0,10]"`,
  `variable = "redmeat_consumption"`, `chain = 1`.
Caused by warning:
! Calling `case_when()` with size 1 LHS inputs and size >1 RHS inputs was
  deprecated in dplyr 1.2.0.
ℹ This `case_when()` statement can result in subtle silent bugs and is very inefficient.

  Please use a series of if statements instead:

  ```
  # Previously
  case_when(scalar_lhs1 ~ rhs1, scalar_lhs2 ~ rhs2, .default = default)

  # Now
  if (scalar_lhs1) {
    rhs1
  } else if (scalar_lhs2) {
    rhs2
  } else {
    default
  }
  ```

Cleaning childhood BMI data

Ensuring the Joinpoint input is up to date

Main Figures

Figure 1 - Joinpoint trends of selected cancer sites

`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
ℹ Summaries were computed grouped by cancer_site and sex.
ℹ Output is grouped by cancer_site.
ℹ Use `summarise(.groups = "drop_last")` to silence this message.
ℹ Use `summarise(.by = c(cancer_site, sex))` for per-operation grouping
  (`?dplyr::dplyr_by`) instead.

Figure 2 - Joinpoint trends in risk factors

Figure 3 - Aggregated PAFs by cancer site

`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
ℹ Summaries were computed grouped by year, variable, and sex.
ℹ Output is grouped by year and variable.
ℹ Use `summarise(.groups = "drop_last")` to silence this message.
ℹ Use `summarise(.by = c(year, variable, sex))` for per-operation grouping
  (`?dplyr::dplyr_by`) instead.

Figure 4 - BMI Attributable Trends

`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
ℹ Summaries were computed grouped by year, variable, and sex.
ℹ Output is grouped by year and variable.
ℹ Use `summarise(.groups = "drop_last")` to silence this message.
ℹ Use `summarise(.by = c(year, variable, sex))` for per-operation grouping
  (`?dplyr::dplyr_by`) instead.

Supplementary Figures

Supplementary Table 1 - Data availability and sourcing information

This table is generated in excel

Supplementary Table 2 - Behavioural risk factors

This table is generated in excel

Supplementary Table 3 - Relative risks

This table is generated in excel

Supplementary Table 4 - PubMed search terms

This figure has been created externally

Supplementary Table 5 - AAPC/APC by cancer site

Joinpoint Cancer Incidence Trends in Women
Age Group AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value P Value Difference Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Breast
20-49 (2001, 2019) 0.88 (0.56, 1.21) <0.001 - (2013, 2019) 0.21 (-0.67, 1.09) 0.62
50+ (2001, 2019) 0.70 (0.17, 1.23) 0.01 0.28 (2003, 2019) 0.42 (0.22, 0.61) <0.001
Colorectum
20-49 (2001, 2019) 3.20 (2.78, 3.62) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 3.20 (2.78, 3.62) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 0.36 (-0.13, 0.85) 0.15 <0.001 (2017, 2019) 2.01 (-1.88, 6.06) 0.28
Endometrium
20-49 (2001, 2019) 2.77 (2.22, 3.32) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 2.77 (2.22, 3.32) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 1.80 (1.46, 2.14) <0.001 0.003 (2011, 2019) 0.29 (-0.33, 0.91) 0.34
Gallbladder
20-49 (2001, 2019) 3.21 (1.86, 4.58) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 3.21 (1.86, 4.58) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 3.38 (2.95, 3.81) <0.001 0.59 (2001, 2019) 3.38 (2.95, 3.81) <0.001
Kidney
20-49 (2001, 2019) 4.53 (3.82, 5.25) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 4.53 (3.82, 5.25) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 3.04 (2.42, 3.66) <0.001 <0.001 (2014, 2019) -0.65 (-2.64, 1.38) 0.50
Liver
20-49 (2001, 2019) 5.08 (1.61, 8.66) 0.004 - (2003, 2019) 2.89 (1.66, 4.15) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 3.39 (1.72, 5.10) <0.001 0.20 (2013, 2019) 0.70 (-1.59, 3.05) 0.52
Multiple Myeloma
20-49 (2001, 2019) 6.02 (4.93, 7.13) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 6.02 (4.93, 7.13) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 2.62 (2.13, 3.11) <0.001 <0.001 (2001, 2019) 2.62 (2.13, 3.11) <0.001
Oral
20-49 (2001, 2019) 2.15 (1.50, 2.80) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 2.15 (1.50, 2.80) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 2.70 (1.48, 3.93) <0.001 0.78 (2010, 2019) 1.61 (0.93, 2.30) <0.001
Ovary
20-49 (2001, 2019) 0.72 (0.05, 1.39) 0.04 - (2013, 2019) -0.57 (-2.33, 1.23) 0.51
50+ (2001, 2019) -1.31 (-1.51, -1.10) <0.001 <0.001 (2001, 2019) -1.31 (-1.51, -1.10) <0.001
Pancreas
20-49 (2001, 2019) 2.63 (1.86, 3.41) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 2.63 (1.86, 3.41) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 0.98 (0.67, 1.28) <0.001 <0.001 (2013, 2019) -0.09 (-0.89, 0.72) 0.81
Thyroid
20-49 (2001, 2019) 6.12 (5.51, 6.73) <0.001 - (2013, 2019) 3.27 (1.69, 4.88) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 4.77 (3.94, 5.60) <0.001 0.005 (2014, 2019) 2.36 (-0.32, 5.12) 0.08
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change
Joinpoint Cancer Incidence Trends in Men
Age Group AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value P Value Difference Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Colorectum
20-49 (2001, 2019) 2.60 (2.26, 2.93) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 2.60 (2.26, 2.93) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) -0.21 (-0.79, 0.37) 0.48 <0.001 (2014, 2019) -0.58 (-1.37, 0.21) 0.13
Gallbladder
20-49 (2001, 2019) 5.87 (-0.68, 12.86) 0.08 - (2003, 2019) 2.29 (-0.05, 4.68) 0.05
50+ (2001, 2019) 2.68 (2.08, 3.29) <0.001 0.17 (2001, 2019) 2.68 (2.08, 3.29) <0.001
Kidney
20-49 (2001, 2019) 3.69 (2.18, 5.22) <0.001 - (2016, 2019) -0.67 (-7.32, 6.46) 0.84
50+ (2001, 2019) 2.79 (2.10, 3.49) <0.001 0.15 (2014, 2019) 0.05 (-2.19, 2.34) 0.96
Liver
20-49 (2001, 2019) 1.47 (-0.93, 3.93) 0.23 - (2014, 2019) -3.52 (-10.98, 4.56) 0.36
50+ (2001, 2019) 4.52 (3.86, 5.20) <0.001 0.99 (2014, 2019) 1.49 (-0.68, 3.70) 0.16
Multiple Myeloma
20-49 (2001, 2019) 4.07 (2.99, 5.16) <0.001 - (2001, 2019) 4.07 (2.99, 5.16) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 2.58 (2.15, 3.02) <0.001 0.009 (2001, 2019) 2.58 (2.15, 3.02) <0.001
Oral
20-49 (2001, 2019) 1.27 (0.85, 1.70) <0.001 - (2013, 2019) -1.07 (-2.17, 0.05) 0.06
50+ (2001, 2019) 2.92 (2.27, 3.58) <0.001 >0.999 (2013, 2019) 1.75 (0.03, 3.50) 0.05
Pancreas
20-49 (2001, 2019) 1.13 (-0.55, 2.84) 0.19 - (2004, 2019) 2.34 (1.47, 3.22) <0.001
50+ (2001, 2019) 1.06 (0.88, 1.24) <0.001 0.47 (2001, 2019) 1.06 (0.88, 1.24) <0.001
Thyroid
20-49 (2001, 2019) 6.04 (4.81, 7.27) <0.001 - (2012, 2019) 3.79 (1.17, 6.48) 0.008
50+ (2001, 2019) 4.91 (3.52, 6.33) <0.001 0.12 (2014, 2019) 1.98 (-2.51, 6.67) 0.37
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change

Supplementary Table 6 - AAPC/APC by risk factor

Joinpoint Trends in Risk Factors Women
Age Group AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Cigarette Smoking - Former
20-49 (1995, 2019) -0.04 (-0.69, 0.61) 0.90 (2017, 2019) -6.12 (-9.43, -2.69) 0.003
50+ (1995, 2019) 0.13 (-0.07, 0.32) 0.20 (2010, 2019) -0.25 (-0.68, 0.18) 0.24
Cigarette Smoking - Current
20-49 (1995, 2019) -2.33 (-2.60, -2.07) <0.001 (2011, 2019) -2.23 (-2.70, -1.76) <0.001
50+ (1995, 2019) -2.23 (-2.61, -1.86) <0.001 (2016, 2019) 0.34 (-0.88, 1.58) 0.55
Alcohol Consumption - Light Drinker3
20-49 (2011, 2019) 0.19 (-0.25, 0.64) 0.39 (2016, 2019) -1.03 (-2.35, 0.30) 0.10
50+ (2011, 2019) 0.44 (0.24, 0.64) 0.001 (2011, 2019) 0.44 (0.24, 0.64) 0.001
Alcohol Consumption - Moderate Drinker3
20-49 (2011, 2019) -3.02 (-4.25, -1.77) <0.001 (2017, 2019) -0.46 (-6.69, 6.17) 0.85
50+ (2011, 2019) -0.27 (-0.65, 0.11) 0.14 (2011, 2019) -0.27 (-0.65, 0.11) 0.14
Alcohol Consumption - Heavy Drinker3
20-49 (2011, 2019) -2.85 (-5.00, -0.65) 0.01 (2014, 2019) 2.97 (-0.10, 6.14) 0.06
50+ (2011, 2019) 0.81 (-0.61, 2.26) 0.22 (2011, 2019) 0.81 (-0.61, 2.26) 0.22
Body Mass Index (BMI) - Overweight4
20-49 (1995, 2019) 0.01 (-0.23, 0.26) 0.93 (2016, 2019) 0.82 (0.03, 1.61) 0.04
50+ (1995, 2019) -0.72 (-0.87, -0.56) <0.001 (2012, 2019) -1.29 (-1.75, -0.82) <0.001
Body Mass Index (BMI) - Obese4
20-49 (1995, 2019) 2.61 (2.33, 2.88) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.23 (2.48, 3.99) <0.001
50+ (1995, 2019) 1.61 (1.00, 2.22) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 1.90 (1.15, 2.66) <0.001
Physical Inactivity - Below UK Recommendations5
20-49 (2003, 2012) -1.44 (-2.43, -0.44) 0.02 (2003, 2012) -1.44 (-2.43, -0.44) 0.02
50+ (2003, 2012) -1.25 (-1.88, -0.61) 0.008 (2003, 2012) -1.25 (-1.88, -0.61) 0.008
Fibre Intake Deficiency - Below UK Recommendations6
20-49 (2008, 2018) -0.20 (-0.45, 0.06) 0.13 (2012, 2018) -0.55 (-0.88, -0.22) 0.007
50+ (2008, 2018) -0.43 (-0.68, -0.18) <0.001 (2014, 2018) -0.02 (-0.63, 0.59) 0.94
Red Meat Consumption - Median
20-49 (2008, 2018) -7.06 (-12.04, -1.81) 0.009 (2015, 2018) -17.80 (-32.31, -0.19) 0.05
50+ (2008, 2018) -7.39 (-8.64, -6.13) <0.001 (2008, 2018) -7.39 (-8.64, -6.13) <0.001
Processed Meat Consumption - Median
20-49 (2008, 2018) -5.36 (-7.88, -2.77) <0.001 (2015, 2018) -10.99 (-19.09, -2.09) 0.02
50+ (2008, 2018) -5.55 (-7.37, -3.70) <0.001 (2008, 2018) -5.55 (-7.37, -3.70) <0.001
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change
3 Heavy (>50g/day), moderate (12-50 g/day), light (<12 g/day)
4 Overweight (>30 kg/m²), obese (25-30 kg/m²)
5 Recommendations are 150 min/week of moderate or 75 min/week or vigorous activity
6 Guidelines are 30g of fibre per day
Joinpoint Trends in Risk Factors Men
Age Group AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Cigarette Smoking - Former
20-49 (1995, 2019) -0.01 (-0.33, 0.32) 0.96 (2017, 2019) -3.54 (-5.93, -1.09) 0.009
50+ (1995, 2019) -1.07 (-1.31, -0.82) <0.001 (2015, 2019) -0.11 (-1.07, 0.85) 0.81
Cigarette Smoking - Current
20-49 (1995, 2019) -1.63 (-2.04, -1.22) <0.001 (2016, 2019) -1.26 (-2.43, -0.09) 0.04
50+ (1995, 2019) -2.25 (-2.62, -1.88) <0.001 (2013, 2019) -3.71 (-4.68, -2.74) <0.001
Alcohol Consumption - Light Drinker3
20-49 (2011, 2019) 1.30 (0.70, 1.91) <0.001 (2016, 2019) 0.35 (-1.45, 2.18) 0.62
50+ (2011, 2019) 0.61 (0.06, 1.16) 0.03 (2017, 2019) -1.31 (-3.99, 1.44) 0.25
Alcohol Consumption - Moderate Drinker3
20-49 (2011, 2019) -2.17 (-2.90, -1.44) <0.001 (2017, 2019) -0.75 (-4.44, 3.08) 0.61
50+ (2011, 2019) -1.10 (-1.56, -0.64) <0.001 (2017, 2019) 0.69 (-1.66, 3.09) 0.47
Alcohol Consumption - Heavy Drinker3
20-49 (2011, 2019) -3.56 (-5.03, -2.06) <0.001 (2016, 2019) -1.10 (-5.61, 3.63) 0.55
50+ (2011, 2019) 0.25 (-0.27, 0.77) 0.29 (2011, 2019) 0.25 (-0.27, 0.77) 0.29
Body Mass Index (BMI) - Overweight4
20-49 (1995, 2019) -0.41 (-0.67, -0.14) 0.003 (2015, 2019) 0.39 (-0.49, 1.28) 0.37
50+ (1995, 2019) -0.39 (-0.57, -0.20) <0.001 (2007, 2019) -0.24 (-0.40, -0.09) 0.005
Body Mass Index (BMI) - Obese4
20-49 (1995, 2019) 2.19 (1.89, 2.50) <0.001 (2001, 2019) 0.79 (0.58, 1.01) <0.001
50+ (1995, 2019) 2.11 (1.69, 2.53) <0.001 (2009, 2019) 0.50 (0.21, 0.80) 0.002
Physical Inactivity - Below UK Recommendations5
20-49 (2003, 2012) -1.86 (-3.51, -0.18) 0.04 (2003, 2012) -1.86 (-3.51, -0.18) 0.04
50+ (2003, 2012) -0.73 (-0.93, -0.53) 0.001 (2003, 2012) -0.73 (-0.93, -0.53) 0.001
Fibre Intake Deficiency - Below UK Recommendations6
20-49 (2008, 2018) -0.38 (-1.34, 0.58) 0.43 (2016, 2018) 2.19 (-3.31, 8.00) 0.37
50+ (2008, 2018) -0.30 (-0.50, -0.10) 0.007 (2008, 2018) -0.30 (-0.50, -0.10) 0.007
Red Meat Consumption - Median
20-49 (2008, 2018) -7.41 (-8.92, -5.87) <0.001 (2016, 2018) -19.99 (-27.17, -12.10) 0.001
50+ (2008, 2018) -4.40 (-8.10, -0.54) 0.03 (2016, 2018) -13.92 (-31.34, 7.91) 0.16
Processed Meat Consumption - Median
20-49 (2008, 2018) -4.88 (-7.38, -2.32) <0.001 (2012, 2018) -7.77 (-10.91, -4.52) 0.001
50+ (2008, 2018) -2.03 (-5.33, 1.38) 0.24 (2013, 2018) -9.97 (-15.25, -4.36) 0.005
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change
3 Heavy (>50g/day), moderate (12-50 g/day), light (<12 g/day)
4 Overweight (>30 kg/m²), obese (25-30 kg/m²)
5 Recommendations are 150 min/week of moderate or 75 min/week or vigorous activity
6 Guidelines are 30g of fibre per day

Supplementary Table 7 - AAPC and APC Trends in BMI Attributable Rates

Joinpoint Trends in BMI-Attributable Cases in Women, 20-49
Rate AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Colorectum
Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.28 (1.79, 6.83) <0.001 (2012, 2019) 2.86 (1.22, 4.53) 0.004
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.18 (2.61, 3.76) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.18 (2.61, 3.76) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 3.39 (2.80, 3.98) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.39 (2.80, 3.98) <0.001
Endometrium
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.80 (3.09, 4.50) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.80 (3.09, 4.50) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 1.71 (1.03, 2.40) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 1.71 (1.03, 2.40) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.29 (1.62, 2.96) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.29 (1.62, 2.96) <0.001
Gallbladder
Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.31 (2.28, 6.39) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.31 (2.28, 6.39) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.37 (0.47, 4.31) 0.02 (2005, 2019) 2.37 (0.47, 4.31) 0.02
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.70 (0.78, 4.66) 0.009 (2005, 2019) 2.70 (0.78, 4.66) 0.009
Kidney
Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.64 (3.04, 8.30) <0.001 (2015, 2019) 1.18 (-7.01, 10.08) 0.76
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.31 (3.24, 5.40) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.31 (3.24, 5.40) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 4.71 (3.60, 5.83) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.71 (3.60, 5.83) <0.001
Liver
Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.46 (3.00, 5.94) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.46 (3.00, 5.94) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.35 (0.94, 3.77) 0.003 (2005, 2019) 2.35 (0.94, 3.77) 0.003
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.71 (1.30, 4.14) 0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.71 (1.30, 4.14) 0.001
Multiple Myeloma
Attributable (2005, 2019) 7.89 (5.41, 10.42) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.94 (-0.81, 8.91) 0.10
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 6.52 (5.04, 8.03) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 6.52 (5.04, 8.03) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 6.63 (5.14, 8.15) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 6.63 (5.14, 8.15) <0.001
Ovary
Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.53 (1.68, 3.38) <0.001 (2012, 2019) 0.21 (-1.12, 1.56) 0.73
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 1.10 (-0.05, 2.26) 0.06 (2007, 2019) 0.14 (-0.36, 0.65) 0.55
Overall (2005, 2019) 1.19 (0.01, 2.39) 0.05 (2007, 2019) 0.22 (-0.30, 0.74) 0.37
Pancreas
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.94 (3.04, 4.85) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.94 (3.04, 4.85) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.39 (1.55, 3.25) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.39 (1.55, 3.25) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.53 (1.68, 3.38) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.53 (1.68, 3.38) <0.001
Thyroid
Attributable (2005, 2019) 7.27 (6.32, 8.23) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.89 (2.05, 5.77) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.49 (4.58, 6.40) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.38 (1.60, 5.20) 0.002
Overall (2005, 2019) 5.62 (4.71, 6.54) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.43 (1.64, 5.24) 0.002
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change
Joinpoint Trends in BMI-Attributable Cases in Men, 20-49
Rate AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Colorectum
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.87 (3.29, 4.44) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.87 (3.29, 4.44) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.48 (1.94, 3.02) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.48 (1.94, 3.02) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.69 (2.16, 3.21) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.69 (2.16, 3.21) <0.001
Gallbladder
Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.57 (3.05, 8.15) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 5.57 (3.05, 8.15) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.51 (-0.01, 5.09) 0.05 (2005, 2019) 2.51 (-0.01, 5.09) 0.05
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.79 (0.28, 5.36) 0.03 (2005, 2019) 2.79 (0.28, 5.36) 0.03
Kidney
Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.92 (4.87, 6.98) <0.001 (2015, 2019) 0.27 (-3.06, 3.71) 0.86
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.16 (2.53, 5.82) <0.001 (2017, 2019) -3.35 (-14.12, 8.78) 0.54
Overall (2005, 2019) 4.57 (3.31, 5.85) <0.001 (2016, 2019) -0.62 (-6.20, 5.29) 0.81
Liver
Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.16 (-1.52, 5.97) 0.25 (2014, 2019) -3.64 (-12.29, 5.85) 0.40
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.66 (-1.04, 2.39) 0.42 (2005, 2019) 0.66 (-1.04, 2.39) 0.42
Overall (2005, 2019) 1.02 (-0.72, 2.80) 0.23 (2005, 2019) 1.02 (-0.72, 2.80) 0.23
Multiple Myeloma
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.78 (-0.02, 7.73) 0.05 (2013, 2019) 0.49 (-3.53, 4.67) 0.79
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.06 (2.56, 5.58) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.06 (2.56, 5.58) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 4.16 (2.66, 5.69) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.16 (2.66, 5.69) <0.001
Pancreas
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.72 (1.94, 5.52) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 1.23 (-2.22, 4.80) 0.45
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 1.76 (0.96, 2.56) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 1.76 (0.96, 2.56) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 1.98 (1.18, 2.79) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 1.98 (1.18, 2.79) <0.001
Thyroid
Attributable (2005, 2019) 7.09 (5.18, 9.04) <0.001 (2011, 2019) 3.77 (2.62, 4.94) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.99 (4.74, 7.25) <0.001 (2011, 2019) 3.72 (2.14, 5.32) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 5.63 (3.68, 7.61) <0.001 (2011, 2019) 3.43 (2.24, 4.64) <0.001
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change
Joinpoint Trends in BMI-Attributable Cases in Women, 50+
Rate AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Breast
Attributable (2005, 2019) 1.01 (0.64, 1.38) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 0.25 (-0.68, 1.19) 0.57
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.33 (0.10, 0.55) 0.008 (2005, 2019) 0.33 (0.10, 0.55) 0.008
Overall (2005, 2019) 0.39 (0.17, 0.61) 0.002 (2005, 2019) 0.39 (0.17, 0.61) 0.002
Colorectum
Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.74 (0.21, 1.27) 0.006 (2009, 2019) -0.16 (-0.60, 0.28) 0.43
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) -0.03 (-0.63, 0.58) 0.93 (2017, 2019) 1.88 (-2.02, 5.92) 0.30
Overall (2005, 2019) 0.12 (-0.51, 0.76) 0.70 (2017, 2019) 1.98 (-2.10, 6.23) 0.29
Endometrium
Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.18 (1.74, 2.62) <0.001 (2011, 2019) 0.83 (0.27, 1.39) 0.008
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.80 (0.34, 1.26) <0.001 (2013, 2019) -0.35 (-1.26, 0.57) 0.42
Overall (2005, 2019) 1.29 (0.87, 1.72) <0.001 (2012, 2019) 0.16 (-0.51, 0.83) 0.62
Gallbladder
Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.03 (3.11, 4.95) <0.001 (2010, 2019) 3.03 (2.08, 3.98) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.75 (2.25, 3.26) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.75 (2.25, 3.26) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 3.00 (2.50, 3.51) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.00 (2.50, 3.51) <0.001
Kidney
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.47 (2.42, 4.54) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 0.35 (-1.70, 2.44) 0.71
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.40 (1.53, 3.27) <0.001 (2014, 2019) -0.88 (-3.00, 1.30) 0.39
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.66 (1.75, 3.58) <0.001 (2014, 2019) -0.76 (-2.99, 1.53) 0.48
Liver
Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.63 (3.26, 6.01) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 1.34 (-1.30, 4.05) 0.29
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.38 (2.15, 4.63) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 0.64 (-1.76, 3.10) 0.57
Overall (2005, 2019) 3.66 (2.41, 4.93) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 0.81 (-1.63, 3.31) 0.48
Multiple Myeloma
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.42 (2.62, 4.22) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 3.42 (2.62, 4.22) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.67 (1.88, 3.47) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.67 (1.88, 3.47) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.74 (1.95, 3.54) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.74 (1.95, 3.54) <0.001
Ovary
Attributable (2005, 2019) -0.22 (-0.82, 0.38) 0.48 (2011, 2019) -1.13 (-1.89, -0.35) 0.009
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) -1.35 (-1.66, -1.04) <0.001 (2005, 2019) -1.35 (-1.66, -1.04) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) -1.29 (-1.60, -0.97) <0.001 (2005, 2019) -1.29 (-1.60, -0.97) <0.001
Pancreas
Attributable (2005, 2019) 1.41 (0.99, 1.83) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 0.35 (-0.48, 1.19) 0.37
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.66 (0.33, 0.99) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 0.01 (-0.65, 0.67) 0.98
Overall (2005, 2019) 0.75 (0.42, 1.08) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 0.05 (-0.61, 0.72) 0.86
Thyroid
Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.42 (4.39, 6.46) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 2.53 (-0.02, 5.15) 0.05
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.45 (3.33, 5.58) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 2.10 (-0.67, 4.95) 0.12
Overall (2005, 2019) 4.55 (3.45, 5.66) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 2.15 (-0.59, 4.96) 0.11
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change
Joinpoint Trends in BMI-Attributable Cases in Men, 50+
Rate AAPC Most Recent APC
Time Period AAPC1 CI 95% P Value Time Period APC2 CI 95% P Value
Colorectum
Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.78 (0.38, 1.19) <0.001 (2015, 2019) 1.12 (0.27, 1.97) 0.02
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) -0.78 (-1.64, 0.08) 0.07 (2014, 2019) -0.86 (-1.82, 0.11) 0.07
Overall (2005, 2019) -0.51 (-1.32, 0.31) 0.22 (2014, 2019) -0.58 (-1.49, 0.34) 0.18
Gallbladder
Attributable (2005, 2019) 5.27 (4.29, 6.26) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 5.27 (4.29, 6.26) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 1.90 (1.08, 2.74) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 1.90 (1.08, 2.74) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.31 (1.47, 3.15) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.31 (1.47, 3.15) <0.001
Kidney
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.91 (2.94, 4.89) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 1.00 (-1.41, 3.46) 0.38
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.15 (1.08, 3.22) <0.001 (2014, 2019) -0.35 (-2.98, 2.36) 0.78
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.51 (1.47, 3.57) <0.001 (2014, 2019) -0.04 (-2.63, 2.62) 0.97
Liver
Attributable (2005, 2019) 6.04 (5.52, 6.56) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.32 (2.30, 4.34) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.67 (2.90, 4.44) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 0.99 (-0.91, 2.94) 0.27
Overall (2005, 2019) 4.29 (3.74, 4.85) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 2.04 (0.95, 3.14) 0.002
Multiple Myeloma
Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.02 (3.31, 4.73) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 4.02 (3.31, 4.73) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 2.73 (2.04, 3.42) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.73 (2.04, 3.42) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 2.86 (2.17, 3.55) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 2.86 (2.17, 3.55) <0.001
Pancreas
Attributable (2005, 2019) 3.02 (2.51, 3.53) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 2.18 (1.18, 3.20) <0.001
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 0.78 (0.51, 1.04) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 0.78 (0.51, 1.04) <0.001
Overall (2005, 2019) 1.08 (0.82, 1.34) <0.001 (2005, 2019) 1.08 (0.82, 1.34) <0.001
Thyroid
Attributable (2005, 2019) 6.45 (4.66, 8.26) <0.001 (2013, 2019) 3.39 (-0.07, 6.98) 0.05
Non-Attributable (2005, 2019) 4.55 (2.84, 6.29) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 1.37 (-2.83, 5.76) 0.49
Overall (2005, 2019) 4.73 (3.01, 6.48) <0.001 (2014, 2019) 1.53 (-2.70, 5.93) 0.45
1 Average Annual Percentage Change
2 Annual Percentage Change

Supplementary Figure 1 - AAPC for all cancers

NOTE: Kaposi Sarcoma is removed from the womens APC plot as neither 20-49 or 50+ generated an AAPC due to zeroes in the data

Supplementary Figure 2 - Flowchart

This figure has been created externally

Supplementary Figure 3 - Trends in risk factors by IMD

`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
ℹ Summaries were computed grouped by sex, age_group, level, variable, and imd.
ℹ Output is grouped by sex, age_group, level, and variable.
ℹ Use `summarise(.groups = "drop_last")` to silence this message.
ℹ Use `summarise(.by = c(sex, age_group, level, variable, imd))` for
  per-operation grouping (`?dplyr::dplyr_by`) instead.
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Supplementary Figure 4 - PAFs by risk factor

`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
ℹ Summaries were computed grouped by year, variable, and sex.
ℹ Output is grouped by year and variable.
ℹ Use `summarise(.groups = "drop_last")` to silence this message.
ℹ Use `summarise(.by = c(year, variable, sex))` for per-operation grouping
  (`?dplyr::dplyr_by`) instead.

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Supplementary Figure 5 - Attributable Graphs for 50+

`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
`summarise()` has regrouped the output.
ℹ Summaries were computed grouped by year, variable, and sex.
ℹ Output is grouped by year and variable.
ℹ Use `summarise(.groups = "drop_last")` to silence this message.
ℹ Use `summarise(.by = c(year, variable, sex))` for per-operation grouping
  (`?dplyr::dplyr_by`) instead.

Supplementary Figure 6 - PAF

Warning: The `size` argument of `element_rect()` is deprecated as of ggplot2 3.4.0.
ℹ Please use the `linewidth` argument instead.
Scale for y is already present.
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Supplementary Figure 7 - Burden of cancer rates by age group

Supplementary Figure 8 - Colorectal cancer and risk factor plotting

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